System South Today

This next system that we have been discussing and tracking for several days appears to be taking a southern route.  This means the higher rain chances today will remain well south of our area across north Texas but an increasing rain chance will occur Tuesday as the system spreads some moisture northward into Eastern OK.  A winter storm watch and warning is currently underway for the areas north of Big Bend Texas back to the El Paso region of Texas into SE New Mexico.  Some snow will also be likely as far north as the Texas southern plains near Lubbock.  Rain will be likely today across North Texas, but we'll expect a mostly to partly sunny day in Eastern OK with highs in the lower 50s. 

As the southern system moves east to slightly northeast, the cold arctic air well north of our area will begin sliding southward and will advance into our area by Wednesday afternoon or evening.  This short lived cold air intrusion will knock the highs down into the upper 30s for Thursday afternoon and the lower to mid 40s for Friday.  Morning lows Thursday and Friday will drop into the teens or lower 20s. 

The trajectory of the upper air flow should quickly begin to push the colder air Eastward with a moderating trend Friday into next weekend.   

The arctic oscillation continues to show a very slight trend in the ensemble data that would lead us to think additional arctic air intrusions will be possible next week across the northern High plains through the Midwest.  It's not likely that these air masses would move directly into Oklahoma next week, but locations to our northeast will experience very cold air.  

At this point we see no clear cut signals of any major winter precipitation events for our area.  

There will be an outside chance of some very light flurries Thursday morning across northern OK and southwestern Missouri, but this chance remains so low we'll not include this probability on the 7 day planner for this forecast cycle. 

A reminder:  follow me on twitter (@alancrone) if you're the tweeting kind.

I'm also on face book.  I have TWO pages, a personal profile (that's really not personal) and the fan page.

The personal page has been maxed out a few times this past month and we're encouraging folks to move to the fan page that can accommodate more friends.  If you are a "friend" on the personal profile, I am encouraging you to make the move to the fan page.

I'll more than likely discontinue the "personal page" within the next 2 months in hopes of pushing all our friends to the fan page.

Thanks for reading the blog this morning and have a super great day.

AC