More Warm Air

We expect another day of super nice early January weather with highs today in the upper 60s near 70!  Southwest surface winds in the 10 to 20 mph range will be likely by this afternoon and the fire spread danger will be increasing across the state.  Please exercise caution.  A few clouds may scoot across the state this morning but mostly sunny conditions should prevail.  

The upper air pattern will remain somewhat progressive but low level moisture is suppressed well south of the region.  The next system to arrive will be an upper level wave Friday into Saturday that will bring a cold front across the area Friday evening into early Saturday.  North winds will usher in a slightly cooler air mass with high Saturday and Sunday into the lower 50s with morning lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s.  The suppression of Gulf moisture well south of the region means the precipitation chances Saturday will be confined to the southeastern sections of the state with higher chances located across southern Arkansas and East Texas.  

Early next week another strong upper level system will dive down from the four corners region and attempt to move across the southern plains.  The EURO has had a tendency this season to close these H5 lows while the GFS has been more open.  Once again the EURO and the GFS are hinting at the system but the details are impossible to project this many days out.  The GFS is also trending toward a closed low and seems to be a little more south compared to the EURO.  The scenario that I will use for this forecast cycle includes bringing some low level moisture back into southern OK by Monday and Tuesday with a system approaching from the southwest.  This will result in a low chance of showers Tuesday with increasing chances Wednesday. 

 As I have been writing here for the past two weeks, we are now in a climatologically favored period for arctic air mass intrusions across the southern and central plains.  The arctic oscillation (a forecasting product) has continued to suggest any arctic intrusion will be short lived during the next week.  The favored time period for this arrival of colder air will be anytime from Wednesday to Friday of next week.  The latest and greatest collaboration of model data (ensembles) suggest Wednesday or Thursday for the colder air intrusion.  My experiences with arctic air masses lead me to expect the arrival slightly faster than model data will suggest.  At this point, I'll point toward a Wednesday morning arrival.  The specifics will no doubt change a few times between now and next week, so I encourage you to check back often if you're interested. 

The fall and early winter season has obviously been extremely mild compared to the previous three. 

 Last winter Tulsa had 256% more snow than average!  At this point, we see no snow potential with the upcoming arrival of the colder air next week as the moisture should be swept eastward before the colder air arrives.  Then again, I forecasted a high of 57 yesterday and we hit 63.  Things can and do change.  Stay tuned.

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