A Warming Trend

A weak pacific front is moving across the area this morning bringing northwest winds back to the region.  The air will be moving down slope from the northwest to southeast and will be compressing allowing the temperatures to warm into the mid or upper 50s today despite the wind shift.  A few high clouds will be likely along and slightly behind the boundary for a short time period today.

 The upper air flow will allow for a mild Thursday and Friday as surface winds veer back from the southwest in the 10 to 22 mph range as temperatures climb into the mid and upper 60s both Thursday and Friday. 

Dry vegetation combined with low relative humidity and gusty southwest winds will create a high fire spread condition for the remainder of the week.  This means the fire danger will be increasing through Friday and possibly Saturday before another front arrives Saturday with north winds. 

The EURO and GFS are now much closer together regarding the weekend system.  A few days ago the EURO had suggested a major winter storm for the Sunday and Monday periods while the GFS was offering a very weak open wave near the area.  We sided with the open GFS and kept the forecast dry and mild, and we see no reason to change the numbers or philosophy at this point.   

The extended data ( both GFS and EURO) are starting to converge on a solution to bring an arctic air mass southward into the nation around January 10th through the 13th.  It appears this may be a glancing blow for the southern plains and would only last a day or so.  The higher likelihood for a specific period would be January 12th-13th for our area.  The arctic oscillation  is not offering any big negative forecast trends through the period which would suggest if this cold air mass moves southward, it would not last long.  As always, stay tuned for updates and keep checking the blog and the forecast for changes.

The EURO is attempting to close off a low and bring is across the state Tuesday into Wednesday while the GFS is weaker, less closed, and more south.  We'll continue with a dry forecast for this cycle.  

Thanks for reading the blog-discussion this morning. 

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