A Very Wet Start to the Week.

The latest QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) is shown on the right. If you compare it with the one I highlighted yesterday, you will see that not much has changed with respect to the state receiving some significant rains over the next two days. As the map shows, much of our state should receive at least 1-2 inches and that may be conservative as the system that will be responsible for the rain will have a lot of moisture to work with. Would not be surprised if some locations, particularly in the more northern counties pick up over 3 inches by the time the rains end later Tuesday. This should put another significant dent in the drought situation, particularly for our more desperate western neighbors.

In addition, there remains the possibility for some wintry weather from this system. As the colder air at the surface and aloft moves across on Tuesday, there will be a window of opportunity for a wintry mix for the more northern counties on this side of the state. Right now, the thermal and moisture profiles are not very supportive of much, if any, accumulation. But, this is a very dynamic system so it will be closely watched for any potential changes. Also, if you have any travel plans to the west, significant snow and blowing snow is expected for NW OK and adjacent areas of KS and TX by late Monday into the day Tuesday.

Cloudy skies and a S to SE wind will keep temperatures pretty steady through the night tonight and we should start off in the 40s for Monday morning. The rain will be spreading this way by first thing in the morning and should be widespread by afternoon and evening. That will result in a short thermometer with highs only in the lower 50s.

As the main storm system lifts out Tuesday, our winds will shift to the NW which should produce what we refer to as an inverted temperature profile. By that, we mean that it will be warmer to start the day than it will be to end it with 40s during the morning hours dropping into the 30s by later that afternoon or early evening.

All precipitation will have ended by Wednesday morning and fair to partly cloudy skies are then expected for the rest of the week and into the Christmas weekend. Temperatures will be fairly seasonal with lows generally in the 20s and highs generally in the 40s which is just a bit below normal for this time of year. There are indications that Christmas Day itself may turn out to be even colder with a brisk northerly wind making it feel even colder yet.

Also, there is one potential fly in the ointment and that is Friday night into the day on Saturday. One of the longer range computer models has picked up on a disturbance that will be moving across the state and could produce some light flurries during that time frame. The other long range guidance keeps us dry, so with the lack of consistency and consensus, will maintain a dry forecast for now but will keep a watchful eye on any possible changes for Friday night or Saturday morning.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot