A Sunny and Cool Day

A weak cold front is moving across the region this morning bringing gusty northwest winds and another shot of cool air to the area.  The highs should remain in the upper 40s and lower 50s both today and tomorrow, but the morning lows Wednesday could drop into the lower 20 near Tulsa and the mid to upper teens across extreme northern OK and southern Kansas.   

Thursday south to southwest winds will return for about a half day and this may be just enough to push us into the mid or upper 50s but it won't last.  A very strong cold front will move across the area Thursday night into early Friday bringing more cold air. There will be a slight chance of some showers Friday, but the higher probability will be Saturday.  The specifics regarding the weekend are a little iffy and the confidence is not exactly high regarding the exact temperature profile in the atmosphere.  This could have a big role in the type of precipitation that may occur with the system this weekend.  

The EURO brings south winds back to the region Saturday with rain developing Saturday afternoon and evening, and then bringing a big cold air mass into the region Sunday into Monday as the rain is exiting the state.  At this point, it appears the rain will be leaving before the cold air will entirely arrive, and at this point there will be no mention of wintry precipitation if one follows the EURO. 

 The GFS is different, and would include a mention of wintry precipitation Saturday across western OK, and then a chance of a mix or some light snow late Saturday evening into early Sunday as the system is moving away from the region.  It's frankly too early to make a big call regarding the system, but the confidence is high that precipitation will occur.  The confidence is somewhat low regarding the exact type of precipitation for the totality of the event.

 The cold air mass behind this system will be deep and strong for the following week and could bring national headlines for the northern high plains.  Stay tuned.