Flash Flood Watch Monday.

The potential exists for some significant rainfall starting Monday afternoon and not ending till mid day on Tuesday. From the QPF map on the right which is valid through the day on Friday, it is obvious that most of us should end up with an inch or two at the very least and quite possible twice that much. For that reason, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued as too much rain too fast could easily cause some localized drainage issues.

There will also be the potential for some severe storms in the extreme SE corner of the state where a frontal boundary has been bouncing around through the day today. That boundary will attempt to move back northward as a warm front but is not expected to make much progress due to the very cool surface conditions behind the front. At any rate, along and near that boundary will be the best location for some storms to pose a wind/hail threat. In the cooler air behind the boundary there will also be a potential for storms, but since they will not be surface based there is only a slight risk that some hail may reach the ground. One thing that is certain is the widespread, locally heavy rainfall that will occur and will put a significant dent in what is left of the drought for this side of the state. Let's just hope we do not go from drought to flood overnight.

As mentioned, the very cool surface air will be difficult to dislodge and Monday looks to have another very short thermometer. The rain will be ending from west to east by mid-day on Tuesday followed by clearing skies. Light northerly winds on Monday and brisk NW winds on Tuesday will keep us quite cool. Wednesday will be sunny and cold to start with light winds that will be somewhat variable in direction becoming light southerly by days end.

Thanksgiving Day looks to be sunny and warmer, but with a strong southerly wind. Those strong southerly winds will continue into the day Friday in advance of the next cool front that is headed our way and is still scheduled to move through the state Friday night. There will be a chance of showers and storms along and ahead of that front as well and possibly some lingering light rain or showers during the day Saturday. It will also be turning colder again on Saturday with brisk northerly winds.

Sunday is questionable at this time as the longer range guidance products have gone their separate ways. One solution has us sunny, cool, and dry. Another solution has us cloudy, cool, and wet. Have opted for the dry solution for now and this will get sorted out in subsequent model runs over the next few days.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot