A Cool Friday

Friday, November 4th 2011, 5:49 am
By: Alan Crone

The temps are in the upper 20s and lower 30s this morning due to light wind, clear sky, and dry air.  This is called " radiational cooling".  All the incoming solar radiation received yesterday was able to re-radiate out into the atmosphere overnight and temps have dropped to just above the local dew point temperature.  Some patchy frost will be likely for the next few hours. 

The east and southeast winds will return today and this will signal a warm up with highs moving back into the lower or mid 60s with mostly sunny conditions.  Wind speeds will be below 10 mph.  

The next upper level system is clearly seen this morning across the western U.S. and will be moving closer to the desert southwest soon.  The pressure will begin to fall across the Lee of the Rockies soon, and our south winds will be increasing speeds in the 15 to 25 mph range for Saturday. 

A cold front will enter western Ok Saturday evening and stall just west of Tulsa Sunday morning before lifting back northwest during the day  As the major upper level system spreads energy over the southern plains, low level moisture will rapidly stream across the state Sunday with a chance of a few showers or storms Sunday afternoon or evening.  The better chances will arrive Monday and Tuesday.

The pattern for the early week system will also support severe weather.  A surface low will form and move near the state Monday evening into Tuesday.  The combination of a strong upper level system combined with increasing low level moisture and a boundary nearby will support a risk of severe weather during the early part of next week. We're still a few days from the event, but the "pattern" would support super cell storms, including the threat of a severe weather.


From Spaceweather.com:


" NOAA forecasters have upgraded the chance of X-class solar flares today to 20%. The source would be AR1339, one of the biggest sunspots in many years. The active region rotated over the sun's eastern limb two days ago and now it is turning toward Earth."


This means the chance of auroral activity may increase over the next 24 to 36 hours.  It's unclear how far south in latitude the "northern lights "may be seen, but I wanted to pass along the information.  I'll keep you posted.