The roller coaster ride with respect to temperatures is about to take another plunge downward after soaring again today. Those strong southerly winds of 30 mph or more this afternoon have pushed temperatures as much as ten degrees or more above normal. Southerly winds of at least 10-20 mph will continue through the overnight hours which means temperatures tonight will also be at least 10 degrees or more warmer than normal to start the day Wednesday.
A rather strong cold front will be arriving during the afternoon and early evening hours of Wednesday with strong southerly winds ahead of it and strong NW winds behind it. As this front moves to the SE across the state, look for temperatures to fall 10-20 degree shortly after the wind shift. Despite the strength of the dynamics, all indications so far suggest that instability will be lacking which reduces the chances of any really strong storms. A few rumbles of thunder certainly cannot be ruled out, but most of the rain is expected to be along and behind the actual cool front.
Clearing skies are expected during the morning hours of Thursday, but despite the sunshine gusty NW winds will keep daytime temperatures in the 50s. Clear skies and light winds by Friday morning should set the stage for a widespread freeze/frost event. Temperatures will then be moderating somewhat over the weekend with a return to gusty southerly winds for Friday afternoon and Saturday.
A weaker boundary still looks to be in the area over the latter part of the weekend so will maintain a slight chance of showers for later Saturday or into the day Sunday. Don't want to get your hopes up too much, but the longer range guidance continues to suggest a more significant rainmaker coming our way early next week. As you can see from the image on the right, the amount of rain we receive from the system on Wednesday still looks to only be around ¼ inch or so for most of us. That will help but will not put much of a dent in our ongoing drought situation. However, all of the longer range guidance has been consistently showing a very wet signal during the Mon-Wed time frame for the entire state.
As I said, don't get your hopes up too high just yet, but it does look promising.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.