A Cold Start

Morning temperatures below freezing will warm into the upper 50s and lower 60s this afternoon with sunny conditions and relatively light winds.  Slightly above normal  temperatures are likely this weekend before more cold air arrives next week.  

This is the first freeze of the early fall season with temperatures this morning in the upper20s and lower 30s.  This is not considered a hard freeze, but tender vegetation will have a hard time surviving this early cold snap.  The temps will be slow to warm this morning with readings remaining in the lower to mid 50s by the noon hour before moving to the lower 60s for the afternoon highs.   

Friday the morning lows will start in the mid or upper 30s before warming into the lower 70s as the main upper level trough to the east continues to move away from the Midwest.  A mid level ridge of high pressure to our southwest will temporarily have some influence bringing milder air to the southern plains this weekend.  Southerly surface winds will also attempt to bring some low level moisture back into the region Friday night into Saturday morning setting the stage for a shot of showers or storms Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

 ]A weak upper level trough will brush the state Saturday night into Sunday morning and there may be enough low level moisture for a few showers or storms near or southeast of Tulsa during this period.  A weak wind shift will occur Sunday but the prevailing wind into Monday and Tuesday will be from the south with highs in the lower 80s.

 Another major upper level trough will slide over the nation early next week and help to shove a significant boundary into the state either late Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning.  Strong north winds will be likely along with more cold air from Wednesday through Friday of next week.  There may be a southern stream system late next week that could bring some rain to the southern plains including the Tulsa metro, but the chances must remain low this many days out in the time and space domain.

 I'll also briefly mention the major differences between the EURO and GFS for late next week into next weekend.  Let's just say at this point the differences are significant with the EURO being much colder and wetter compared to the GFS.  Much colder.

Enjoy the nice fall weather.