Expect cloudy conditions today with a chance of morning showers and storms followed by highs in the mid to upper 70s across Northern OK with mid 80s across Southern OK. Temperatures may be even cooler Thursday with additional rain chances.
The front is located to our south and the active weather pattern is now underway. A wave of precipitation is already up and running across central OK this morning and will be moving closer to our area during the next few hours. Model data has not handled this wave correctly regarding the coverage of precipitation, but the other features seem to be on track. This first wave will pass the area around mid morning and we should get a break from the rain and storms for the afternoon. The clouds and northeast winds will be re-enforced by another shot of cooler air arriving this afternoon and wind speeds may increase to near 30 mph for a short window during the afternoon.
The RAW NAM has really thrown us a curve ball this morning. The model is suggesting a very cool if not cold day for Thursday with temperatures starting in the mid 50s Thursday morning and falling into the upper 40s by Thursday evening. The EURO and GFS surface t plots indicate we'll stay in the mid 60s for the afternoon highs with a decent shot of showers. We have made some adjustments toward the cooler side of the guidance but we haven't bought the RAW NAM numbers at this point. Stranger things have happened and based on the current weather year underway, anything seems possible. The coverage of precipitation remains on the iffy side, but we have a rather healthy pop for Thursday.
The weekend continues to offer widely verifying solutions with different coverage's of precipitation. I think the key will be what happens Thursday. If the cooler air (colder air) verifies, the boundary may stay southward a little longer than currently planned. If we end up in the upper 60s Thursday, the front currently southward will return Saturday as a warm front bringing a chance of showers and storms Saturday morning before the boundary lifts into southern Kansas.
Both GFS and EURO suggests another upper level wave will be nearing the region Sunday into Monday with another chance of showers and storms. Both sets of data indicate another mild frontal passage sometime early next week. The day of this passage has already flipped once and the confidence remains low for the extended periods from Sunday through Tuesday.