Another warm day is expected across the area with afternoon highs moving above the seasonal average. Some triple digit weather will be possible tomorrow afternoon across the southern third of the state before a cold front arrives pre-dawn Wednesday. This front will eventually bring cooler air to the region by Thursday. A series of upper level disturbances will be passing the near the area during the second half of the week. These disturbances will help to increase our rain and storm chances Thursday, and possible into the weekend.
Temperatures yesterday topped out in the mid and upper 80s but our mid level ridge is expected to expand northward and eastward today bringing a return of the warm air back to the southern plains. The fire danger will be elevated both today and tomorrow ahead of the boundary. Several counties have been placed under burn bans once again due to the lack of recent rainfall and the continuing drought.
The models are fairly close with the boundary approaching sometime either late Tuesday afternoon or early Wednesday across northern OK. I have opted to take the boundary over the region around 3AM Wednesday. The amount of low level moisture is expected to be meager and surface based pre-frontal thunderstorms will be few and far between.
I think our better chances will occur Thursday into Friday as overrunning precipitation chances increase with the approach of an upper level wave across the region. Post frontal precipitation occurs behind the surface boundary. We'll have northeast winds Wednesday and Thursday along with mostly cloudy conditions. Rain shower locations would have the effect of keeping temperatures in the mid or lower 60s Thursday. I'll keep the high Thursday near 70 for this cycle.
The weekend is not clear at this point.
The EURO is very bullish with disturbances both days with south winds and increasing low level moisture. The GFS also brings the winds around from the south, but the precipitation signal is not as high as the EURO. I currently have the weekend temps in the lower 80s for highs with a 30% chance of showers or storms. These probabilities will probably go up and not down.
The normal high is now 85 with a normal low near 64. The records for today include a low of 48 in both 1959 and 1940, while the record high of 102 was recorded on this date in 1930.
Sunset tonight will be at 7:36pm with Tuesday morning's sunrise at 7:04am.