A band of elevated thunderstorms developed early this morning and rumbled across portions of northeastern OK and northwestern Arkansas. A few folks received some rainfall while the Tulsa metro received only trace amounts. We expect another hot and humid afternoon with highs in the mid 90s to 100. Another slight chance of showers and storms will occur tomorrow morning across extreme northeastern OK.
The upper air pattern has not changed significantly and we're stuck in the same weather cycle for yet another week. This means a slight chance of early morning storms for a few folks across northeastern OK and western Arkansas followed by very hot afternoons. The temperatures today may stay in the mid or upper 90s across extreme eastern OK where the early morning storms occurred, but a lot of folks will be around 100 for highs. There is a weak boundary that has pushed into the state this morning but this front will more than likely become diffuse later this morning and winds will back around from the southeast.
The data continues to suggest a slight chance of early morning storms for the next two days due to the location of the mid level ridge remaining west of the region. The ridge is close enough to bring the heat but far enough west to create the northwest flow aloft.
Wednesday could be the hottest day of the week with highs from 104 to 108 along with breezy southwest winds and sunny conditions.
The EURO and GFS data both suggest a pattern change for the end of the week into the weekend. A surge of Gulf moisture is expected to move northward across East Texas into Southern or Eastern OK ahead of a boundary that will arrive either Sunday or Monday. This should increase the chance for showers and storms by Friday through the weekend. The Friday chances may remain on the slim side at this point, but I'll bring the weekend pops up slightly from the previous cycle.
The additional moisture will result in enhanced cloud cover and should allow the highs to drop into the 80s. But we're still 6 days out, and the data has been extremely unreliable for the past 3 months or so. I'll keep the highs in the lower to mid 90s for now but we may be able to lower the highs and raise the storms chances during subsequent forecast updates.
Irene was a very strange storm. I'll try to post more about the system tomorrow.
There is another large wave off the coast of Africa that will become a named system soon.