ISO Storm Chance

Wednesday, August 17th 2011, 5:38 am
By: News On 6

Late yesterday afternoon a line segment of showers and storms developed along a slow moving boundary located across southwestern Kansas and northwestern OK.  This small complex of storms moved southeast and helped to convectively drive the boundary to the southeast.  This boundary will be a big key to our temperature forecast today and the chance for scattered storms, including this morning. A few of these are underway near OKC and across Northwestern OK.  The boundary is located near the I-44 corridor and hopefully will slide a few more miles southward before stalling this afternoon.  If the boundary lifts back northward as a warm front today or if the boundary is located just north of Tulsa after the noon hour, our temperatures in the Tulsa area will soar to 103 or 105.  I currently have our high today at 99 for Tulsa and from 100 to 104 across southern sections of the area.  Location north of the boundary will see temps hit the mid 90s.  

A few scattered showers or storms can't be ruled out this morning near Tulsa, but a slightly higher chance of storms will occur this afternoon in the daytime heating maximum.   The threat for a few strong to severe storms will be included in the forecast. 

 The boundary will slide northward as a warm front Thursday and then may slide back south Friday night into Saturday morning.  The EURO is a little more bullish on this probability for the weekend while other models keep the boundary mainly to our north. A complex of storms may approach the area Thursday evening but stay across SE Kansas, SW Missouri, and NW Ark.  Saturday evening and Sunday another small complex may approach the area but our chances will remain on the low side for most of the area.

 The upper air flow would support a few shower and storm chances remaining for the next several days due to the upper air flow from the northwest.  This has occurred as the mid level ridge of high pressure is centered to our west and southwest allowing for weak disturbances to slide southward along the periphery of the ridge.

 The sun angle continues to slowly change but you will begin noticing the sunset is occurring earlier and earlier.  By August 27th the sunset will be at 7:59 PM and one month later sunset time will be at 7:13 PM. 

FYI: The long range GFS indicates the potential for a tropical system nearing the states early next week.  Stay tuned.