Notice the gradient wind map on the right from the OK Mesonet. A weak boundary is clearly evident just N of I-44 where a more NE wind prevails, very light winds are along the boundary itself, and stronger southerly winds to the south. This boundary is expected to drift back northward later in the day, but will bounce around southern KS and northern OK for another day or two. Meanwhile, the upper level jet is located a little further north into KS this morning and provided a focus for overnight storms which remained just north of us this time around.
Cannot be so sure for this evening and tonight though with the surface boundary further south and the upper level winds likely kicking off another round of storms by then. With that in mind, have to consider the possibility of storms late in the afternoon and more likely overnight tonight. The chances are not all that great, on the order of 20-30%, but any storms that do occur will likely have strong winds and hail associated with them. In other words, there remains a threat of some severe storms during that time frame.
In the meantime, it will be another hot, humid, breezy day with daytime temperatures topping out in the mid-upper 90s and heat index values at or above 100 this afternoon. Much the same is expected on Sunday and we will also have southerly winds of 15-25 and gusty at times both days. Not much relief is expected at night either with overnight lows generally in the mid-upper 70s. The exception there is for those locations that do catch a rain as the rain cooled air will drop temperatures into the upper 60s or lower 70s.
Monday will be much the same, but after that it still appears a change is in the works. A robust system aloft has been forecast for days now to move eastward across the Plains and that should be taking place during the Tue-Wed time frame. This system should bring temperatures back to their seasonal values for one of the few times this entire month.
It will also be accompanied by a good chance of showers/storms some of which will likely be severe. In fact, it appears the surface front will be arriving during the day Tuesday and will likely hang around the general area for the next several days. That means will have to keep at least a slight chance of showers or storms going into the latter part of the week. Having said that, it appears that our best chances of showers and storms will be from late Monday night through Tuesday night. In addition to the severe threat, those will also be the best chances for some widespread, soaking rains.
So, it does appear some relief is on the way, at least for a short time, from this persistent June heat wave. In the meantime, stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.