A few storms are located to our west this morning and also in south central Kansas near the Wichita area. These storms will move east to northeast around 20 mph but should remain just west before decaying this morning. Operational models do not bring the activity into the area this morning and the layer of warm air aloft around 10 to 12k feet should also suppress this activity from moving into our area. We'll need to watch carefully.
The pattern is slowly changing. You may have noticed the temperatures yesterday were not quite as hot as the day before, and this should also be the case for each subsequent day in the forecast period through Saturday. Highs this afternoon will be in the lower 90s with a few mid 90s to our west and a few upper 80s to our extreme east. Gusty south winds around 15 to 25 mph will be common and the sky condition will be hazy with a few clouds. The haze is partly due to the massive fires in Eastern Arizona as the upper level wind pattern brings some of this particulate matter into the plains states.
We're still trying to figure out the front to the north this morning. It appears this boundary will stay north through tomorrow but begin sliding southward Friday evening. The operational NAM brings the front into the Tulsa area between 2 and 4AM Saturday and takes the wind shift to just north of the I-40 corridor. This position is more south compared to previous runs. The GFS brings the boundary into the state by early Saturday and stalls near the Tulsa area.
Showers and storms will be possible early tomorrow morning just west of our immediate area. I think these should remain out of Tulsa, but it may be close. Friday night into Saturday morning a few storms are also expected, and again, mainly west of our area.
Saturday afternoon and evening another mid level disturbance is expected to move across the area bringing additional lift to the state. The higher number of storms will be north of the boundary, but since my confidence is low regarding the exact position of this front, I'll keep the pop around 30% for Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. A much higher pop will be likely for Southern Kansas, and we may increase our probability for the Tulsa area once the confidence on the frontal position increases.
The extended will call for more warm air Monday through Tuesday but another weak boundary will appear Wednesday into Thursday bringing a minor cool down and a threat of a few showers or storms.
A heat burst occurred this morning near Wichita Kansas. This happens as thunderstorms decay into a relatively dry air mass. The downward motion of the air from high levels of the atmosphere caused the temperatures to increase rapidly at the surface. Temperatures rose from the 80s to near 100 around 12:30AM with winds of 50 to 60 mph.