Pattern Change.

Looks like an early start to summer as the map on the right shows what the upper level pattern will look like by Thursday evening. Notice in particular the massive ridge that will be building over the state by then. This feature is more common by the middle to latter part of the summer and the result will be an early start to hot, humid, summer-like conditions.

As we transition from the very active pattern of the last week or so to a more stable pattern, there will still be some issues to deal with. A rather strong system will be moving out of the Rockies during the Mon-Tue time frame, but that energy is expected to be focused well to our north or west. That will keep us with rather gusty southerly winds over that time frame due to the rather tight pressure gradient. Our rain chances will be slim, but non-zero. In fact, there remains a slight chance of a storm as I write this on Saturday evening.

After that system moves on by, the ridging aloft will become more pronounced as evident by the map on the right. That will relax the pressure gradient somewhat with lighter southerly winds expected for later in the week. Since our winds will be southerly throughout the period, then the very moist air will stay with us. Dew point temperatures will be generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s for the period which will keep our nights from dropping below 70. During the day, we will have partly cloudy skies and with little or no cooling shower activity, daytime temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s. We should even be in the mid 90s by the latter part of the week. The combination of heat and humidity will put heat index values another 8-10 degrees above the actual air temperature……in other words, it will certainly feel like summer.

So, stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot