A Weak System Today

Did you absolutely love yesterday's weather?  Even with the breezy south wind the weather was just about picture perfect.  I don't think we had a cloud in the sky for most of the area and for most of the day.

This will change a today with the approach of a weak upper level system and a surface boundary into northern OK.  The front has already advanced into northwestern Ok and will be moving over the Tulsa area around 4pm, with a window of a few storms from 4pm until about 8pm or so.  The chance will be around 20% for the Tulsa area and about 30% for areas north and east of the metro.

 The boundary will be washing out south of Tulsa tonight and the return flow will commence Friday with strong south winds through the weekend. 

 The upper air flow will be from the northwest this weekend with a chance of showers and storms near 20%.  There will be a conditionally higher chance Saturday morning across southeastern Kansas, extreme NE OK, and SW Missouri.  I've been writing about this time period for the past few days regarding a potential small complex of storms that may form pre-dawn Saturday morning northeast of Tulsa.  The signal is not strong, but it's been consistent for the past several days.

 The upper air flow will flip to the southwest by Sunday into early next week and this will signal some important changes.  First the temperatures will begin to warm up.  We'll be in the mid and upper 80s early next week, and its not impossible to see a 90 degree reading Monday or Tuesday to our west if the clouds remain thin during the afternoon.  This pattern will support mostly cloudy conditions in the early morning periods with partly sunny to mostly sunny conditions by the afternoon. 

 Another major upper level system will be approaching by Tuesday and Wednesday out of the desert southwest.  The trajectory will result in a major system forming and moving over the state either Wednesday or Thursday of next week.  I think this will be a severe weather producing system, but its impossible to know with any confidence at this point in the forecast cycle.