Another System Tonight

Update:

The Storms Prediction Center has upgraded extreme SE OK, NE Texas, and part of Southern Ark into a HIGH risk area.

The following is from earlier this morning:

We expect partly cloudy conditions today with highs in the upper 60s.  A fast moving system will arrive later tonight bringing another round of showers and storms to the area through early Wednesday.  A few may be strong to near severe in Tulsa, but higher chances for severe weather will occur across southeastern OK. 

 A significant severe weather outbreak is possible later tonight across southeastern OK and west central Arkansas.  Large hail and tornadoes will be possible.  Residents in these areas should remain aware of weather conditions later tonight. The Storms Prediction Center has included this area in a moderate risk of severe weather potential and could possibly be upgraded to a high risk in subsequent forecasts.

The flooding has been catastrophic and historic across some locations of east central Oklahoma.  Numerous roadways are washed out and many residential areas have experienced flooding conditions during the past two days.  River, streams, and creeks are also at flood across eastern OK.  The lag time between the ending of the rain and the subsiding of the flooding may be two to three days for some basins and caution should be exercised around flood prone areas for the next few days.

Another powerful upper level trough will be arriving later this evening and cause a surface low to develop across West Texas.  The front which is currently south of the state this morning will attempt to move northward today as a warm front and the surface low will move across the Red River Valley.  The position of the boundary relative to the surface low will hold the key to a potentially significant severe weather outbreak later tonight.  Current data supports this location to our south and southeast across Northeast Texas and extreme southeastern OK.  We'll be monitoring the observational network closely today and making adjustments to the forecast. 

 The upper level trough will cross the region Wednesday morning with more showers and storms through at least midday.  Yesterday's data supported temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s, but this mornings data suggest some warmer air for Wednesday afternoon.  I'm not sold on this solution.  The upper air trough will be relatively cold.  Surface winds will be from the northwest, and scattered showers and storms should be present for most of the morning through midday.  I'll take a look at Wednesday's temperatures before moving to air time today, but expect some upper 50s and lower to mid 50s for Wednesday afternoon highs.

It looks like we'll get a break Thursday and Friday, but I wouldn't put away the rain gear just yet.

 Another upper level system arrives this weekend bringing another front into the area either Saturday night or Sunday morning.  GFS data continues to be the fast model with limited pops and EURO continues to offer a slower arrival and higher probabilities.  The boundary will slide south of the area Sunday and could return into southern OK Monday.  This means additional storm chances into early next week.  The EURO data suggests the boundary may hang up across eastern OK Sunday with additional showers or storms.

 EURO and GFS ensemble data supports a continuation of our current upper air pattern for at least the next two weeks.  What does this mean?  Additional shower and storm chances remain through late April and early May.  This also means the severe weather threat will remain very active, which is normal for this time of year.

Next:  Busted!

I have several weaknesses, including among other things, an addiction to chocolate when I can get it!  Thankfully, I have backed down tremendously on my "junk food" consumption over the years, but it's difficult to pass up the Kit Kat and the Twix when offered.  My sweet children acquired some Easter candy from their sweet mother this past weekend.  I just happened to "stumble "onto the stash yesterday afternoon around 2pm.  My plan was to "sample" from both kids pile, and therefore they wouldn't notice the missing goodies. 

Wrong. 

 I forgot that my children are very efficient in the accounting arena.  They take inventory of things like Easter Candy and Christmas presents and how long they get to watch TV every other day.  So, yesterday afternoon I'm helping with dinner and it happens:  I hear the wailing and gnashing of teeth.  The younger partner of Crone and Crone Accounting discovered a deficiency of at least 8 " candy birds nest eggs", otherwise known as Whoppers to the grown ups.  This prompted the senior partner to also take a look at the liability and asset spreadsheet, and she also discovered about 8 of the candies missing from her ledger.  Thankfully mom came to the rescue and took the heat off me by "fessing up" to consuming a few, so I didn't take the full brunt of the wrath. 

 I didn't take all 16 at once.  It was a gradual indulgence, but I paid the price.