The active weather pattern is reloading for today and tomorrow, and may not totally be finished with our area until Wednesday. We should get a break for most of Tuesday. We continue to be concerned with a severe weather threat at times due to the influence of low level moisture and the active upper air pattern. Large hail and heavy rainfall will be the main issue for the next several hours, but we also must track the retreating warm front currently south of Tulsa. This boundary will hold the key for a more significant severe weather threat including the possibility of surface based super cells later today across the eastern and southeastern sections of the state. A higher severe weather threat will materialize across Arkansas later this evening. The front will move back southward Monday evening as a cold front and will be located across north Texas Tuesday morning. This boundary will surge northward Tuesday afternoon and evening as another retreating warm front as a powerful upper level system approaches the region. This could set the stage for a significant regional outbreak of severe weather including long track tornadoes across extreme southern OK and northeast Texas Tuesday night late. The current data would keep most of this to the southeast of Tulsa, but we'll be watching carefully.
But first, this morning we continue to monitor scattered storms across the region. Some of this may reach severe levels this morning with hail and a few wind gusts. Later this afternoon the surface boundary may be north of the state. This would place most of eastern OK in the warm sector. Copious amounts of moisture combined with the approach of the upper level system will result in severe thunderstorm development in central and southeastern OK as dry line attempts to sharpen up across central OK by 5pm. These storms later Monday night would be severe with large hail potential and a slight risk of tornadoes. The Storms Prediction Center has placed areas to our east in a moderate Risk of severe weather including Arkansas and part of Missouri.
The upper level forcing and associated thunderstorm activity will move east of our area Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, but additional showers and storms may also form early Wednesday morning as the upper level low traverses the region. A surface low will be lifting northeast away from the state early Wednesday and we may have another day with a cold rain Wednesday morning wrapping around the back side of the system. The chances will remain around 60% for Tuesday PM into Wednesday morning.
Thursday and Friday we'll get a break with sunny and mild conditions, but another system will rapidly develop and bring a chance for storms back into the area Saturday night and early Sunday morning. The data differs, of course, regarding when the weekend front will arrive. The GFS is faster and with only a slight chance of showers and storms, while the EURO is slower and offers a slightly higher chance of storms into Sunday morning. I'll split the difference and keep a 20 pop for both Saturday and Sunday at this point. Updates to follow, so don't cancel any plans for next weekend.
A flooding threat is underway now across portions of eastern OK and more so Northwestern Arkansas. The river flooding threat will also exist for much of the week. I'll not post too much information about this due to the lack of time, but this may be significant in some locations. If you reside in a low lying area that typically floods, please remain alert. Also, many of the rivers and streams across eastern OK will be at flood for the week.
Next: I'm a little busy at this point for any of the "next" category for the morning blog, but I'll catch up tomorrow morning! Thanks for reading. I do appreciate you very much.