Got a little excited Thursday evening when radar showed some showers trying to develop in Osage County. Unfortunately, they fell apart about as fast as they developed and that may be the same story again later Friday. There remains a slight chance of a late afternoon shower/storm, but the chances are pretty slim. Much the same can be said for Saturday and it still looks like Sunday will have our best chance for rain. But, as you can see by the QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) on the right, any decent rainfall looks to be displaced further east of us once again. That has been the pattern for quite some time now, and quite frankly there are no indications it will change anytime soon.
In the meantime, a high fire danger situation will continue to be troublesome as southerly winds will be strong and gusty in advance of a storm system that will be coming across the Rockies over the next few days. The strong southerly winds will also keep temperatures way above normal with 60s the general rule at night and 80s during the day until a cool front arrives late Sunday.
The cool front will likely spawn showers and storms that will quickly move on east of us and likely produce their best rainfall once they are well past us. Even so, the strength of the dynamics could lead to some storms becoming severe during the day Sunday. That will be followed by a decent cool-down on Monday with a brisk northerly wind and lots of sunshine. Temperatures will still be above normal though and the high fire danger will continue.
Another system will be coming our way along about Wed or Thu, depending on which of the longer range products verifies. For now, I am going with the slower ECMWF as opposed to the faster GFS which tends to have a fast bias in these longer range products. The slower solution would also give us a little better chance of shower/storms along about Thursday; so we will see.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.