What a difference a day is going to make. Notice the Sunday high temperature map on the right. The triple digit heat in SW Ok set records and so did we as the official high of 88 here in Tulsa ties the record for this date. Monday will see afternoon temperatures more than 30 degrees cooler than what we experienced today and it looks like we could see a light freeze or frost by early Tuesday morning.
The cause of this major weather change is a cold front that will be arriving after midnight and moving rapidly on SE across the state by early morning. Showers and storms are expected to be forming along the leading edge of the cold front by shortly after midnight and some of these could become severe with winds and hail the primary threats. The more eastern counties will have the best chance of rain, but the rather rapid movement of the line of storms also suggests that total rainfall will probably be on the order of ¼" if even that for most locations.
Strong southerly winds ahead of the front will keep temperatures in the 60s and 70s, and equally strong northerly winds behind the front will result in rapidly falling temperatures which should bottom out in the upper 40s to near 50 by Monday morning. Lingering cloud cover and possibly a few lingering showers through the morning will keep temperatures steady with only a minor rebound during the afternoon. Skies should be clearing from west to east by afternoon or evening, but temperatures will be pretty well confined to the 50s all day long, or about 30 degrees or so below what we had today.
Clear skies and light winds by Tuesday morning could result in a light freeze or patchy frost in the normally cooler valley locations followed by a quick rebound. Gusty S to SW winds by afternoon and lots of sun should get us back into the lower 70s and we will be back into the 80s by the end of the week. Gusty winds and the warmer conditions also means an enhanced fire danger situation for the rest of the week as well.
However, conditions will be a little more favorable for at least some scattered daytime showers or storms for the latter part of the week and going into the coming weekend. The timing on the next cool front is still uncertain as the longer range data has been vacillating, but it looks like sometime Sunday another front should arrive with possibly a better chance of rain at that time.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.