The cold front is currently sliding through the northeastern OK area this morning and will exit the state early this morning. We expect mostly sunny conditions and highs in the 70s today along with gusty northwest winds around 10 to 20 mph. The fire danger issues will remain high today.
A very active weather pattern will unfold over the next few days but the chance of showers and storms will remain relatively low until Sunday evening into Monday.
The cap was too strong yesterday afternoon for any mature thunderstorm activity to form. You may have noticed some small showers or storms between 4pm and 7pm across extreme northeastern OK, but the towers could never mature due to the strong layer of warm air aloft and the very strong winds that did not allow updrafts to persist.
Between 11am and 1pm yesterday we did have a few scattered showers that passed near Tulsa producing sprinkles, but this activity was elevated.
The wind and dry conditions lead to a big fire danger issue yesterday. Wind speeds will not be as strong today, but the air mass will be dry leading to another enhanced fire danger afternoon across the state and northeastern OK. Humidity this afternoon will be in the 20 to 25% range across eastern OK.
Warm moist air will return to the region Thursday night as a new surface low will form to the west and move eastward by Friday morning. A few scattered storms will be possible and I suppose a few could produce some hail Friday morning. This chance remains very low.
Saturday morning another surface low will slide rapidly east and may also produce a few scattered showers or storms across western Arkansas.
The weekend is still quite iffy. The model data continues to flip around from rain on Sunday to Monday night. What is clear? The temperature trend will be down this weekend into early next week. We may see some very cool (cold) air Monday along with a good likelihood of rain.
EURO data is supporting the chance of rain changing to snow on the back side of the system across southern Kansas!
Forecast confidence Today: 9
Issues: High Temp Thursday.
Issues: timing of system and how cold will it get!