A weak cool front has made it to about I-40 this morning and is expected to only slowly move on southward over the next 36 hours or so. The more E to NE winds behind the front will fortunately not be nearly as strong as was the case on Friday and the more S to SE winds ahead of the front will not be nearly as strong either. Winds should be generally less than 15 mph throughout the day today which will help to alleviate the fire danger somewhat. Also, slightly cooler temperatures are expected with highs in the upper 60s to near 70 which means humidity levels will be somewhat higher and that will also help with the fire danger situation.
Sunny skies this morning will give way to increasing cloudiness later this afternoon and evening with mostly cloudy skies by Sunday morning. Sunday will be mostly cloudy with little or no sunshine and along with the clouds comes a chance of light rain or showers. The chances of any one location receiving measurable rainfall will be in the 40% range and some showers may well linger into Monday morning. Monday will also have mostly cloudy skies for much of the day and a NE wind. Bottom line is Sunday and Monday will be cooler, with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Also, any thunder will likely be confined to the extreme SE counties and there is currently no indication of any severe threat.
In fact, much of the coming week looks reasonably settled in that respect. There could be a few isolated showers or thunderstorms late Tuesday or Tuesday night and again late Thursday, but present indications suggest only a slight chance of any rain at all and little or no severe threat.
As our winds return to a more southerly direction, temperatures will be on the rise once again so it will certainly be Spring-like in that regard. The only real issue is that the winds will likely become strong and gusty by the middle to latter part of the week resulting in a high fire danger once again.
This is all due to a more zonal, or west to east flow in the wind pattern at the jet stream level. Eventually, something in this pattern will amplify and bring a more significant chance of showers/storms, and we may not get a good indication of that happening until just a few days before the event. In the meantime, enjoy this early Spring weather!
As always, stay tuned and check back for updates.