Once again, need to emphasize that a burn ban is in effect for many counties across the state as you can in the image to the right. Also, strong S to SE winds for Monday and Tuesday will create an enhanced fire danger situation anyway. Fortunately, humidity levels will also be on the rise which will mitigate the fire danger somewhat.
Mostly cloudy skies and a brisk SE wind through the overnight hours will result in a much milder start to the day on Monday, but the mostly cloudy skies will also temper the afternoon warm-up somewhat as well. Those S to SE winds will be on the order of 20 mph or so with some occasional higher gusts for Monday and even stronger on Tuesday. That will be in response to falling pressure to our west as a storm system moves out of the Rockies and a surface low pressure system organizes near the Texas Panhandle during the day Monday.
This system will then start moving eastward across the state on Tuesday and the trailing cold front looks to be moving into our neck of the woods shortly after dark. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will occur along and ahead of this system along with the potential for some of them to become severe. As mentioned this morning, the quality and depth of the return moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is still in doubt as dew point temperatures along the upper Texas coast were still in the 30s late this Sunday afternoon. That would limit the instability and the threat of severe to a certain extent. However, the winds at the surface and aloft will be quite strong and the wind shear, or change in the winds with height, will be favorable. Bottom line, Tuesday is looking rather interesting.
Fortunately, it looks like the rain on Tuesday will be widespread as the rest of the week looks dry. Wednesday and Thu will be sunny and cooler but gusty southerly winds and warmer temperatures will return for Friday creating another enhanced fire danger situation. Saturday looks dry despite a weak front arriving and our next chance for rain may wait till late Sunday or Monday.
As always, stay tuned and check back for updates.