Chance of Storms Tuesday.

Saturday, March 5th 2011, 7:58 pm
By: News On 6

Clear and cold for tonight, after that a nice rebound in temperatures before the next storm system arrives along about Tuesday. Also, increasing southerly winds will once again create an enhanced fire danger situation for Sunday afternoon and the winds will be particularly strong for Monday and Tuesday. However, the humidity levels will be higher by then which will mitigate the danger somewhat.

Those gusty southerly winds will be in response to another storm system that will be moving across the southern Rockies and then out into the Plains by Tuesday. In advance of this system, we will have increasing high level cloudiness Sunday and mostly cloudy skies by Monday. The low level moisture has been pretty well scoured out as northerly winds and dew point temperatures in the 30s and lower 40s have penetrated to the Texas coastal waters this afternoon. However, the strong southerly winds over the next few days still leaves open the question of how quickly the quality moisture from the Gulf of Mexico can return for Monday and particularly for Tuesday.

Despite the questionable moisture return, it appears the system aloft will be strong enough to produce a slight chance of showers and possibly some thunder by Monday evening/night. The best chance will be on Tuesday when another cold front will be moving across the state and some of those could be severe during the afternoon and overnight hours. Right now, it appears the better quality moisture and better instability will probably be focused further E or SE, but the dynamics will be quite strong and may be able to overcome those limitations.

That will be followed by clearing skies and another cool-down for Wednesday and Thursday, then another warm-up before the next front arrives Friday night or Saturday. That system looks to be moisture starved so will keep the forecast dry for now. But, the temperature roller coaster ride continues as yet another, potentially stronger system looks to be following closely behind for Sunday night or Monday and could produce another round of storms as well.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot