A Cold Friday

Update:

The air mass continues to remain very cold.  Some mist and snow flurries will be possible for the next hour or so across northern OK.  Afternoon highs will remain in the lower or mid 40s for most of the area with mostly cloudy conditions.  Spring like weather will be likely this weekend with a chance of severe storms Sunday evening.

 The colder air has moved across the region this morning in the wake of the storm system that brought rain and thunderstorms to the area yesterday.  The Tulsa area was on the northern edge of the severe weather threat.  The severe weather watches were confined to central and southern OK.

 Morning clouds will continue through early afternoon before slowly thinning.  This will create a temperature forecast issue.  Forecasting exactly when and where these clouds will clear is a humbling venture!  I will use a 45 on the big map today with colder air remaining around Bartlesville and upper 40s in southern OK where some sun should be appearing by early afternoon. 

 The weekend will be a transition period as southeasterly flow rapidly returns across the area Saturday evening into Sunday in advance of a powerful upper level system.  This upper level system is extremely dynamic and stronger than yesterday's upper level storm.  The question regarding the Sunday system will be moisture return.  If enough low level moisture returns Sunday, a significant severe weather outbreak is possible Sunday evening across eastern OK before the system rapidly moves into western Arkansas Monday morning.  If low level moisture does not return, only a few severe thunderstorms would be likely Sunday night before the system ramps up in western Arkansas.  I encourage you to remain aware of the Sunday forecast.

Any discrete thunderstorm cells that develop ahead of this powerful system would easily rotate creating a possibility of tornadic storms.

 The upper level pattern may give us a break for most of next week.  After the Sunday-Monday system, I don't see any major systems for most of next week.  The upper air flow will be from the west to east.  A small wave will traverse the region Wednesday with a few clouds, but no major systems will be impacting the area this week. 

 The GFS and EURO both offer a storm system for next week weekend, but some major differences exist in the output which would be better left alone at this point since we're a full week away.