Get ready for some great weather for the next few days as we move into some warmer air through at least Friday, and maybe Saturday.
Temperatures this morning will be cold with morning lows in the lower 20s. Local relative humidity values this morning are in the 90% range. Some patchy fog or frost will be likely in some locations. This shouldn't be too big of a deal, but remain aware of the possibility of a slick spot or two near large bodies of water.
The afternoon highs will move to near 60 today and into the upper 60s by Friday. Southwest surface winds today and westerly winds tomorrow will help create the warmer air, while dry vegetation will lead to a very high fire danger. Please use caution.
A weak wind shift will be likely again tonight as a surface trough moves across the region.
We continue to look at Sunday through early next week as a potential winter weather scenario, but model data continues to keep us guessing and prodding instead of making confident forecasts.
The leading edge of cold air should arrive Sunday morning and this will knock our daytime highs into the lower 40s. A southern stream system will pass to far south to tag northern OK, but some showers may be possible Sunday across far southern OK. I have kept the 20% for this period, but most, if not all of the pops will be confined to southern OK.
Sunday evening deeper cold air should be arriving as the stronger surge of arctic air approaches the northern OK area. Some freezing rain or snow showers will be possible Monday morning across far northeastern OK, with higher chances located across southeastern Kansas to central Missouri. This chance again appears rather low and I have a 20% chance for this time period.
Tuesday is now a day to watch carefully. The incoming GFS has developed a full blown major system with a lot of snow potential for eastern OK. The EURO is too far south with the upper level trough to have a major impact on northern OK and would suggest some wintry precip potential for southern OK and North Texas. I have increased the Tuesday time period to a 30% chance. This time period obviously could support much higher accumulating snow chances, but the data is too inconsistent to raise the flag at this point.
The drought monitor is indicating moderate drought across most of the state with severe drought conditions located across central OK. I again will stress the fire danger issues, so please use caution.