There are very few things in the world of weather that would qualify as a lead pipe cinch, but if we do not get snow over the next two days, I will be very surprised. In fact, if you look at the radar displays, it looks like it should be snowing now. As a matter of fact, it is snowing at the cloud level which is where the radar is looking, but the air below those clouds is quite dry. As a result, it is evaporating (actually the more accurate term is sublimation) before it can reach the ground. Eventually, a few snowflakes will make it to the surface and we expect some light snow or flurries before the day is over and into the night tonight.
The system responsible for the snow today is moving across Texas and the most likely location for any measurable snowfall will be across extreme SE Ok where several inches will be possible. For the rest of us, perhaps a dusting. However, this winter weather event has three punches and the second punch will occur on Monday.
The system across Texas will be quickly moving on eastward and weakening while a second and stronger system aloft will be dropping down from the NW and moving along the Ok/Ks state line on Monday. This system will be spreading mostly slight snow from W to E across the state during the day. Light snow or flurries are expected by Monday morning followed by what should be a steady light to at times moderate snow during the day and ending during the evening or overnight hours. Due to the limited moisture available, the total amount of snowfall from this event is expected to be on the order of 1-3 inches with lesser amounts along and south of I-40 and potentially heavier amounts along and north of the Ok/Ks state line.
The third punch from this winter weather event will be the extreme cold that will persist for Tue-Thu. This will be the coldest we have been so far this season and the cold together with gusty winds will create dangerous wind chill values in the single digits or possibly even in negative territory for Tuesday and Wednesday.
By the end of the week, we expect to finally get above freezing and the coming weekend is questionable at best. The longer range guidance is showing very little temporal or spatial continuity with respect to more cold air that is poised to return over the weekend. So, in the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.