Short term issues deal with the extent of a stratus cloud deck for Sunday and Monday and the associated effects on temperatures. But, the biggest forecast concern is during the Tue/Wed time frame and a frontal boundary that will be meandering around the area. After that, there is no doubt that Thanksgiving Day will be much colder, in fact the coldest we have been since last winter. The only real question is just how cold it will be. More about that in a moment.
First, Sunday and Monday will be quite mild with brisk southerly winds helping hold our nights in the 50s for tonight and again Sunday night. Daytime temperatures will be tempered by a stratus cloud deck and the breaks in those clouds will determine how warm we will be. If we get more sunshine than currently projected, then our daytime highs may make it well into the 70s. But, from the statewide temperature map on the right, it is obvious that the stratus deck helped hold temperature down in SE Ok and also in NW Ok and that factor must be considered for the next couple of days. Anyway you look at it though, we will be quite mild for this time of year.
Then, there is Tuesday and Wednesday. Huge bust potential on those days as the first surge of colder air to the north tries to make it into the state. These shallow, cold air systems often make it further and quicker than the computer models can catch, but at the same time the overall pattern holds back the real deal cold air until later Wednesday. An educated guess at this time brings the first boundary to between I-40 and Hwy 412 during the day Tuesday with temperatures along the Ok/Ks state line some 10-20 degrees colder than will be the case south of the boundary. Then, this boundary tries to move back north as a warm front by early Wednesday before the real cold air push arrives that afternoon/evening. Obviously, the position of the boundary on both of those days will make a huge difference with regard to temperatures, so check back for updates. There will also be at least a chance of showers/thunder both days.
There is no question that Thanksgiving Day itself will be much colder than we have been in quite some time. The only question is just how cold. Temperatures will start in the 20s that morning and only in the 30s during the afternoon. Strong northerly winds will put wind chill values in the teens during the morning and the 20s for the afternoon hours. At least we will be dry with mostly sunny skies. Friday will also be sunny and quite cold followed by a warming trend for the weekend.
As always, check back for updates as later model runs will begin to settle down to a more reliable solution.