Rainfall over the last 24 hours across our state is shown in the image to the right from the Ok Mesonet. For the most part, it was on the light side with a few exceptions. Another chance for some light rain will come our way later Wednesday, but most of what falls should be confined to the extreme northern sections of our viewing area. This will be due to a potent storm aloft and its associated cold front that will be moving across the state during the day.
This system does not have much moisture to work with, but the very strong dynamics aloft may be enough to overcome that and produce some light rain or showers for the extreme northern counties. Those strong dynamics will also make for a windy day on Wednesday with gusty southerly winds ahead of the front and gusty northerly winds behind it. The winds should calm down enough for temperatures Thursday morning to be near the freezing mark. After that, a return to southerly winds and a warming trend will set in which will extend through the weekend and into early next week.
Although temperatures will be much warmer over the weekend, the strength of those southerly winds will likely return enough moisture for some stratus clouds to develop both Saturday and Sunday to temper the warm-up somewhat. There may be a few showers or even a few storms by Sunday as well.
As has been the case all this week, we are still watching the developing weather pattern for Thanksgiving Day. As has been mentioned before, the guidance at those longer time ranges frequently flip-flops and is often not very reliable. What we are looking for is some consistency in time and space with regard to the major weather features by Thanksgiving Day. What we are seeing so far continues to suggest that Thanksgiving Day and the days following look dry as a significant storm system will be moving across the state along about Tuesday or Wednesday. The European model in particular has been the most consistent in suggesting at least a dry Thanksgiving Day. However, the GFS model has become more erratic over the last few model cycles and if its timing should turn out to be correct, then we will be both cold and wet and things could get interesting for both Wed and Thu of next week.
One thing that is agreed on is that by far the coldest air of the season is coming our way next week and will be here in time for Thanksgiving and for the next few days after that. The uncertainty revolves around the timing of its arrival and how much moisture comes with it. So, stay tuned and check back for updates.