Some light shower activity remains this morning across eastern OK and north Texas this morning as our upper level system moves away from the region. Morning clouds will quickly give way to sunny conditions with afternoon highs in the upper 50s or lower 60s. Wednesday looks nice but a stout cold front will be approaching around noon bringing gusty north winds and falling temperatures during the afternoon. This surface front will be associated with an upper level clipper system that will rapidly drop through the central plains tomorrow. Our moisture is limited for this system and most of the forcing will remain to our north, but there may be a few showers across southern Kansas and Missouri. I wouldn't be shocked to see a few sprinkles across extreme NE OK Wednesday evening.
A surface ridge of high pressure will settle across northern OK Thursday morning resulting in freezing temperatures for many locations. The high will slide rapidly southeast allowing for a southwest surface wind by afternoon but highs will be hard to move out of the lower 50s.
The upper air pattern will again go through some changes this weekend but I don't think it signals a major pattern change. We'll see the development of another pacific west coast trough that will slide eastward by Sunday. As this moves eastward the pressure will begin to fall in the Lee of the Rockies allowing for a surface area of low pressure to form in SE Colorado. This will allow our surface winds to be from the south at 15 to 25 mph and also begin to transport low level moisture back into the region. A few showers and storms will be possible Sunday into Monday as this moisture transport begins and a weak disturbance moves around the base of the main trough.
By Tuesday this system will begin moving eastward and should allow a chunk of very cold arctic air to slide southward from the northern Pole regions. The upper air flow by Tuesday and Wednesday will be from the northwest and the door will be open for this air mass to slide southward. The southern extent remains a big guess at this point, but this shallow air mass will move southward until it gets " hung up' by local terrain effects. It will be impossible at this point to offer any substantial forecast data for this period, but we'll be watching closely at this system. This system may also have the potential for some precipitation but it's expected to be east of the state by Thanksgiving. Stay tuned for details regarding this cold air mass as it has the potential to be the coldest air mass of the season.