November elections to bring big changes in Oklahomaâ€™s state House

OKLAHOMA CITY -- Whether it's the first female in Oklahoma's history or the first Republican in more than 80 years leading the House of Representatives next year, there's a lot riding on November's

Monday, April 12th 2004, 12:00 am

By: News On 6

OKLAHOMA CITY -- Whether it's the first female in Oklahoma's history or the first Republican in more than 80 years leading the House of Representatives next year, there's a lot riding on November's elections.

For the Democrats, Rep. Jari Askins of Duncan was selected last year to replace current House Speaker Larry Adair as the House leader in 2005. It would mark the first time a woman ever served as Oklahoma's House speaker.

One person who doesn't want to see that happen is House Republican leader Todd Hiett of Kellyville. With 28 House members, including 18 Democrats, forced out by term limits this year, Hiett hopes the Republicans can win enough seats in November to take over the House for the first time since 1921.

"I don't expect to be the minority leader next year," Hiett said. "I would expect the leader of the Republican caucus next year would be the Speaker of the House."

With the departure of state Rep. Mary Easley, D-Tulsa, to the Senate after winning an open seat there, Democrats hold a slim 52-48 margin in the House, and Republicans are already beginning to flex their political muscle.

Gary Jones, chair of the Oklahoma Republican Party, said Easley's narrow, 350-vote victory over GOP challenger Jeff Johnson last week in a traditional Democratic stronghold shows his party is ready for the challenge.

"The momentum this kind of showing gives our candidates for both the state Senate and the state House this fall is invaluable," Jones said. "We have got them nervous and on the defensive. As for us, we can't wait for November."

Askins, however, expressed confidence in the Democrats' ability to not only hold its majority, but target some open Republican seats.

"As we proved in 2002, we believe if the right candidates are chosen by the Democrats to run for those offices that we will not only have the opportunity of keeping the seats we currently hold, but potentially picking some open seats from the other side," Askins said.

Gary Copeland, director of the Carl Albert Center at the University of Oklahoma, said there is no single answer to what will happen in the large number of districts that are open with no incumbent.

"Generally, it ought to be competitive, but it could go either way," Copeland said. "Republicans have consistently made gains over some period of time, but it appeared to stabilize a couple of years ago. The question is whether that stabilization will continue."

Republicans posted huge gains in the House in 1998 when they took over eight seats previously held by Democrats to bring their total to 49 in the 101-member House. But Democrats held on to all of their seats in 2000 and even managed to pick up one GOP-held district.

For Askins, term limits and the large number of open seats this year is presents both opportunities and challenges. She acknowledges that without term limits, she would have little chance of being elected speaker-designate by the Democratic caucus.

"Without term limits, there are quality people who would be staying in the House of Representatives who would have an opportunity and deserve the opportunity to serve as Speaker of the House," she said. "However, term limits is also the obstacle that may keep me from that opportunity, and that's because of the large number of open seats."

Even if Democrats were to lose the majority in November, it might not be too long before a woman is sitting in the speaker's chair. Second in line behind Hiett on the Republican side of the aisle is Assistant Minority Leader Susan Winchester, R-Chickasha.

Winchester said she supports Hiett as the next Republican leader, but hopes her day will come to make history in Oklahoma.

"(Askins) may or may not be the first female speaker," Winchester said. "We'll just have to see how things play out in the next elections."