Many Retailers Meet Sales Forecasts

Thursday, November 30th 2000, 12:00 am

By: News On 6

NEW YORK (AP) â€” Boosted by strong sales over the Thanksgiving weekend, the nation's largest retailers were able to eke out November results that met Wall Street's expectations. But analysts said the outlook for the holiday season remained extremely uncertain.

Much of the sales, particularly in the department store sector, was achieved through heavy and widespread discounting.

``Unless you had low prices either by way of deep discounts or were a discounter yourself, you were left behind,'' Kurt Barnard, publisher of Barnard Retail Trend Report, based in Upper Montclair, N.J.

Analysts predict retailers will need to resort to deeper price-cutting within the next week to persuade consumers not to delay their holiday shopping. Customer traffic has slowed dramatically in malls and department stores since last Friday, according to RCT Systems, market research firm.

``Black Friday was extremely strong for many retailers,'' said Jeffrey Feiner, managing director at Lehman Brothers. ``However, we believe that Christmas will be difficult. Over the past few years, consumers have been waiting to the last minute to do their shopping, but it will only get worse this year,'' because there are two extra days between Thanksgiving and Christmas in 2000 than there were in 1999.

Stock market volatility and rising fuel prices have prompted consumers to cut back their spending, leaving retailers with disappointing sales for several months. And sales actually were quite weak for the first part of November.

Retailers' nerves are likely to be even more frayed following two economic reports â€” one on personal income, the other on consumer onfidence â€” that do not bode well for the holiday season.

On Wednesday, the Conference Board reported consumer confidence fell in November to its lowest level in more than a year.

And Thursday, The Commerce Department reported Americans' personal income declined by 0.2 percent in October, the first decrease in two years. Consumer spending, meanwhile, rose by the smallest amount in six months.

Department stores' sales were generally in line with Wall Street forecasts, but analysts said stores including J.C. Penney Co. Inc., May Department Stores Co. and Sears, Roebuck and Co. got their business only through heavy discounting.

Federated Department Stores,Inc., which reported sales results Tuesday, did not meet expectations.

Discounters, particularly hurt in recent months by rising fuel prices, fared better in November, with Target Corp., Kmart Corp., and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., the world's largest retailer, posting sales above or in line with analyst forecasts. Value retailer Kohl's Corp. also beat Wall Street forecasts, but warehouse retailer Costco Inc. fell short of expectations.

The specialty retail sector had mixed results. Limited Inc. and Gap, Inc., which both reported results Wednesday, failed to meet analysts' targets. Trendy chain Abercrombie & Fitch also did not fare well. However, there were plenty of winners, including Talbots Inc., Pacific Sunwear of California and Hot Topics, Inc., all reporting strong same-store sales.

At Wal-Mart, sales from stores open at least a year, known as same-store sales, were up 4.4 percent, while total sales gained 9.4 percent. Same-store sales are the most widely used measure of retailers' strength.

Sears saw same-store sales at its stores in the U.S. increase 2.8 percent. Total domestic sales increased 3.7 percent.

Dillard Inc. had a 1 percent decline in same-store sales, which were in line with Wall Street's reduced forecasts, while total sales decreased 2 percent. Target Corp. reported same-store sales rose 5.4 percent, while total sales increased 10.8 percent.

Selected figures on November sales at other leading chains:

â€”Kmart, same-store sales were up 3.3 percent; total sales gained 2.2 percent.

â€”Penney, same-store sales were up 0.7 percent; total sales gained 1.6 percent.

â€”Talbots, same-store sales were up 18 percent; total sales rose 28 percent.

â€”Kohl's, same-store sales were up 11.2 percent; total sales gained 30.9 percent.

â€”Abercrombie & Fitch, same-store sales decreased 8 percent; total sales were up 19 percent.

â€”Saks Inc., same-store sales were up 0.1 percent; total sales gained 0.4 percent.