Fire Threat Thursday Before Rain Return To Northeastern Oklahoma

Sunshine returns today with highs reach the upper 60s with north winds becoming slightly breezy this afternoon as another weak front passes the area.  This will bring slightly cooler weather into the area tonight through Friday morning before gusty winds and rain chances return for part of the weekend.  The fire spread rates will also increase not only this afternoon, but especially this weekend.  Much stronger winds and lower humidity is likely across Kansas today where Red Flag Warnings may be issued. 

The system that brought active weather yesterday across far southern OK is now ejecting away from the state with clearing sky and temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30s.  A few valley locations may drop into the upper 20s.  A fast moving shortwave across the northern plains will rapidly drop southeast today brining a weak front across the area later today with a surface ridge of high pressure quickly moving into the area tonight.  The pressure gradient is stronger in the data today compared to yesterday and I have increased wind speeds across the area later today as a result.  I may also need to tweak the daytime high down slightly, but still feel pretty good with landing spot in the mid to upper 60s north, close to 70.   Later tonight, a surface ridge will build across the central plains and will allow clear sky and light winds Friday morning with temperatures dropping into the upper 20s and lower 30s.  North winds will remain for most of Friday along with sunshine and highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.  Basically, our weather both today and tomorrow will be in fine shape, other than gusty afternoon winds today and the slightly increase in fire danger.

This weekend another shortwave upper level system again takes aim at the southern plains with increasing south winds from 20 to 30 mph.  Low level moisture will more than likely remain south of the state Saturday with increasing fire spread rates near and west of highway 75 by afternoon due to the presence of dry vegetation, gusty winds and low humidity.   Sunday morning should represent moisture rapidly returning northward with mostly cloudy and mild weather.  Temps in the lower 50s Sunday morning will reach at least the mid-60s before our rain and storm chances arrive from the west to east by afternoon or evening.  The timing in the data remain inconsistent, but most data continue supporting a decent chance of showers and storms arriving by Sunday night.  If quality low level moisture arrives, the potential for a few strong to severe storms may arrive, but current projections keep this threat very low and mostly across far southeastern OK or northeast Texas. 

The actual cold front may not cross the state until Monday morning or afternoon.  We’ll begin Monday with a few leftover showers or storms near or east of the metro along with gusty southwest winds and lows in the 50s with highs possibly reaching the lower 70s before north winds arrive with a minor afternoon drop in readings from the northwest to southeast.  This boundary may stall near the region Tuesday into Wednesday with limited shower chances through Wednesday as several weak impulses traverse the area.  The increasing moisture combined with a boundary nearby could support a few strong storms but there appears to be no major upper level system for this period.   A stronger looking system may approach the state by the end of next week, that could provide us with our first real chance of severe weather for the season.

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone