The fog and low clouds (stratus) will once again be the fly in our forecasting pudding today and will regulate just how much we’ll be able to warm-up this afternoon. Yesterday a very narrow but persistent stratus deck ruined the party for a section of the area, about two counties wide just west of the metro.
On both sides of the clouds yesterday, we managed to hit the upper 50s and lower 60s while under the soup we stayed in the lower 50s almost all afternoon. Today will be another test. I’ll keep the morning fog and clouds through noon and then bring us with mostly cloudy conditions with highs in the upper 50s. A few spots south and west will be able to hit the lower 60s today. We may see a small area of fog redeveloping later tonight into Wednesday morning before our next cold front nears the region Wednesday morning to midday.
Our first upper level wave will arrive tomorrow and brush our area to the north while shoving a cold front southward through the plains. Moisture moving northbound today will have a shot of producing a few showers or even rumbles of thunder Wednesday across far eastern or southeastern OK as this boundary moves over the region.
We should be dry in the metro as we hit the upper 50s or lower 60s Wednesday by midday, but colder air will sink southward by at least Wednesday afternoon at the earliest or evening by the latest. Temperatures may drop into the lower to mid-40s by late Wednesday across far northern OK with north winds and clouds. Then it’s back to cold air Thursday with morning lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s and highs in the lower 40s with north winds at 10 to 20 mph for the first half of the day.
It may be a little tricky Thursday evening for a few hours with a low-end chance of freezing rain near Osage county to Kay county with temperatures briefly nearing freezing late Thursday night before south winds bring warmer conditions quickly into the area Friday morning. Southern Kansas may also have a small window late Thursday night for some light snow to rain mix.
The pattern could easily bring some moisture into the north early Thursday morning even though most model data keeps this to our southwest for most of the day before arriving later Thursday evening into Friday morning and midday as temps climb with south winds returning. Not a big issue right now, but something we need to remain aware of during the Thursday period.
Friday morning south winds from 10 to 25 mph will be underway as warm moisture air rapidly returns in advance of a stronger upper level system with rain and some thunder developing. Highs should be reaching the upper 50s or even lower 60s Friday before the 2nd upper level system passes to our east and drives the next cold front southward. This will take the moisture out of the state Friday night across southeastern OK and bring more cold and dry conditions back for the weekend. At least that’s the plan at this point.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!