We're looking at another big warm-up today through Wednesday before another cold front arrives with a modest cool-down Thursday into Friday followed by another stronger front Sunday that could bring more winter-like weather back to the state early next week.
A few showers and storms may brush extreme southeastern OK this morning remaining well southeast of most of our immediate areas of concern. After morning clouds, we anticipate some partial clearing with more sunshine in the mix later today with southwest surface winds from 12 to 22 mph. This will allow daytime highs to reach the mid-80s both today and tomorrow before the boundary approaches northern OK late Wednesday afternoon with a very small chance for a few showers or storms along or slightly behind the front. Our storm chances will remain near 20% or less for the Wednesday front. If a storm could develop, it would more than likely be strong to severe but the probability for surface-based formation is very low. As the boundary moves southward it will bring cooler weather into northeastern OK with daytime highs Thursday in the lower 60s with north winds at 10 to 20 mph. A few showers may develop across part of northern OK Thursday but again, the probability remains low.
Friday into the weekend some uncertainty continues as the data differs regarding the outcome of a strong upper system currently positioned near the Baja. This upper feature should bring rain and storms into part of the area either Saturday or Sunday, but the exact trajectory of the system and the surface reflection would have different scenarios for timing and even the potential for a few strong storms. As of this post, we'll keep any mentions of strong to severe storms Saturday across the Red River Valley region, with higher chances well south across Texas. As the low moves across north Texas by Saturday night, a surface cold front will move from the central plains into Oklahoma with north winds and colder weather by Sunday afternoon. We’ll have a few showers in the forecast for Saturday morning, but our higher chances will arrive Saturday evening into Sunday morning as the system moves near the southern third of the state. Sunday afternoon highs may briefly reach the 60-degree mark around noon but then should be falling through the afternoon with a slight chance of showers along with chilly conditions. Early next week continues to appear much colder with some data supporting morning lows in the 30s and highs only in the upper 30s and lower 40s for Monday. I’ll not take the all the bait at this point and keep Mondays highs in the mid to upper 40s. If this northwesterly aloft pattern does develop, the threat for severe weather next week will remain extremely low for most of the plains with a cold airmass likely entrenched across the region.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day and stay safe.