Warmer Weather Returning To Northeastern Oklahoma

The trend for our weather should be centered upon warmer weather through Wednesday before another modest cold front approaches Wednesday evening into Thursday morning with another reduction in temperatures Thursday.  Yet another stronger front is likely for Sunday with another notable cool-down into early next week.  This weekend remains uncertain regarding precipitation chances due to inconsistencies continuing to be unresolved in most data suites.  Most data will bring a stout upper level feature across the southern plains, including Oklahoma, Friday into Saturday with some chances for thunderstorm activity.  These data have continued to change with regards to the strength of the system and consequently any impacts for severe storms. Despite the uncertainty in specifics for storm chances, most of the ensemble runs also have some consistency with another significant cool-down early next week across the central and eastern sections of the nation.  Beforehand, the good news should remain with much warmer weather for the first part of the week.

 A disturbance is located to our southeast this morning and some isolated showers will be possible for a few of our southeastern Oklahoma counties for the next several hours and later tonight.  Any impacts for the metro will be confined to some spotty drizzle chance and clouds.  Our temperatures, currently in the upper 50s, will quickly move into the 60s by midday and reach the lower to mid-70s for afternoon highs along with south winds near 15 to 28 mph.  Later tonight into early Tuesday morning a mid-level disturbance will also eject across the state with a slow chance for a few isolated storms, but higher chances will remain across far southeastern OK and southwestern Arkansas and points eastward through the day.  Southwest surface winds continuing also in the mid-levels will support daytime highs reaching the mid-80s Tuesday with gusty winds from 15 to 25 mph with some sunshine in the mix.  These same conditions are likely Wednesday with highs topping out in the lower 80s before the first surface boundary moves across the state Wednesday night or Thursday morning.  This will bring a low chance of a shower or storm across far eastern sections, but dry conditions are expected across the northern regions due to a capping inversion along the front.   Temperatures Thursday morning will start in the 40s with afternoon highs near seasonal averages in the 60s along with east or northeast winds near 10 to 20 mph.  

Friday the differences in the data become more noticeable but our forecast will keep a slight chance for storms Friday night into Saturday as at least one, possibly two separate upper level disturbances brush the region.  Saturday evening into Sunday, a stronger surface front will near the state with another notable reduction in temps.  Most data support highs only reaching the mid-50s Sunday and some colder air lingering for a few days next week as the upper air pattern briefly changes from a southwesterly flow to the northwest with a major surge of colder air likely across the northern and midwestern U.S.  This air-mass will brush the Missouri Valley early next week with much colder air likely again across the state for a few days.  

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone