Active Weather Pattern Returns To Green Country

Some fog will be possible across southeastern to central OK this morning but should not be widespread across the northern sections.  Dense fog advisories will remain near and south of the I-40 region through 10am.  This currently does not include the Tulsa metro, even though some patchy fog will be possible in a few locations around the metro. 

Temps currently in the upper 40s will reach the mid-70s this afternoon before a weak front nears the northern third of the state in conjunction with a small upper level impulse moving into the Missouri Valley.  This will bring a slight chance for a few showers or storms near the highway 412 corridor region, including the Tulsa metro.  If these storms do form, one or two could be strong with some nickel hail and wind gusts near 60 mph.  Any storms that do form this afternoon should end with the loss of daytime heating.  Our next weather maker continues to be a powerful upper level system currently near the west coast that will bring rain and thunderstorms back across the eastern OK Wednesday.  Most of tomorrow should be fine for eastern sections while a few storms will become likely across northwestern OK late Tuesday evening.  These storms will blossom into one or more storm complexes and move eastward into our area by Wednesday morning with additional storm development likely through Wednesday midday and afternoon.   The location of the upper level system combined with adequate moisture should bring chances for heavy rainfall along with some severe thunderstorm potential.  Higher chances for severe weather may end up slightly south of the metro, mostly along the I-40 corridor region into southern OK and north Texas due to some positioning of important features. 

Some of the models differ on the exact position of the surface low pressure area that will form as the main upper level system approaches the state, but at this point, we’ll keep a mention for some severe storm probabilities across our entire region.  Basically, the EURO is more south with the low and the GFS tracks this feature into central OK by Wednesday afternoon.  The EURO could keep most severe threats slightly south, mostly along the Arbuckles into the Red River into Texas, while the GFS and some NAM runs would bring these threats northward into most of the central and northeastern OK region.  This system will be passing and exiting the state late Wednesday night with most of Thursday currently looking dry and pleasant.   Our next upper level system will quickly follow with yet another fasting developing system bringing thunderstorm threats into the state Thursday night into Friday.  Of course, it wouldn’t be the weekend without a slight mention for storms, but at this point in the forecast cycle, I’m inclined to keep the weekend dry for now despite a weak upper level impulse that may near northeastern OK Sunday morning.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone