A Pattern Change Bringing Rain Chances

A pattern change is underway bringing rain chances and not as hot weather back to the state.

A few showers will be possible to our northwest this morning with temps mostly in the 70s. Highs this afternoon will reach the upper 80s north and a few lower 90s south along with our better storm chances arriving this afternoon and evening. Some pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible, not only this afternoon and evening, but for several chances this week.

If you visited the blog last Friday, you may remember a discussion about the ridge moving back to the west allowing a strong system to near the state early this week with rain chances and not as hot weather. You may also recall me posting that it would be highly unusual for this solution to verify for this time of the year, which typically features some of the driest and hottest weather of the summer season.

The data this weekend was highly suggestive of this solution and the pattern change is going to occur with the temperatures lowering and rain chances increasing this week. Heavy rainfall may also be possible across part of the state and flood watches will be required in some locations.

A few showers and storms will be likely this morning along the OK-Kansas state line region before a boundary moves slowly southward this afternoon and evening bringing higher chances for storms across part of the area, including threats for locally heavy rainfall and some gusty winds. A convectively induced area of vorticity is also expected near the area later today and Tuesday, possibly even Wednesday, keeping storm chances in the forecast. The severe weather threats will remain limited but not zero for the first part of the week. The position of the ridge well to our west will keep our area under the northwest flow pattern for the rest of the week. The ridge is forecast to become even stronger across the southwestern U.S. and this will increase the strength of the northwest flow over our area. Deep layer shear may be increasing later this week with this system for Thursday evening into Friday morning which may bring a slightly better chance for some organized severe weather threats.

Basically, we'll keep several chances for storms in the forecast for the week, along with much lower daytime highs compared to normal. Muggy weather is still likely this afternoon with the high moisture content in the atmosphere. This will also lead to some locally heavy rainfall issues in some locations.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone