Early Morning Fog With Mid-Day Highs In The Upper 80s

A few areas of patchy fog will be possible this morning before temps move back into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon with hazy sunshine and south winds near 10 to 15 mph. Warm weather remains for the next several days. Our next front arrives early next week. 

Delta continues a direct path into the Yucatan Peninsula this morning with hurricane warnings for Cozumel to Cancun to Dzilam De Bravo. The storm should continue as a powerful category three hurricane with sustained winds nearing 120 mph and higher gusts. As the storm pounds the Peninsula, it will emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico as a Cat 2 storm before strengthening again to a cat four as it moves closer to the southern U.S. coastal region. The latest official forecast from the National Hurricane Center indicates the system may remain a major hurricane making landfall across southern Louisiana late Friday afternoon or evening. The current trajectory keeps most impacts away from our immediate area, but a few small bands of showers may brush extreme southeastern OK late Friday evening. Northeastern OK should remain warm and dry. If Delta tracks more westward, this could change our forecast Friday.

We have some controversy regarding the early week storm system for the plains, and the potential for a cold front moving across the state. The various model suites used for these time periods now have various solutions and scenarios for the upper air trough approaching the central plains. Operational EURO and a few others bring the long wave trough more southward and slower while the GFS tends to keep most of the energy north but is a day faster. The differences would be the scenarios for the frontal passage with the GFS bringing the front across the state Monday with mostly dry conditions and the EURO arriving Tuesday with a decent chance of storms. We’re pulling for the EURO since we need rain but will side more with the GFS. This operational data seems to have some support from more of the ensembles, including most of the EURO ensembles. Following the front, we’re returning to some fall-like weather. Operational EURO is colder compared to the GFS but most suites and data support the return of fall conditions.

We need to pick-up some rainfall soon. Our vegetation will begin slowly decaying becoming become fuel for wildfires. The fire danger is already elevated across the western third of the state and will advance eastward over the next week or two.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV

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