A surface ridge of high pressure is centered near the metro this morning allowing for chilly weather for the next few hours before the ridge moves eastward later today into the evening hours. Temps will move from the 30s this morning into the upper 60s or lower 70s with southwest winds at 10 to 15 mph. A weak wind shift may arrive later this afternoon and evening from the northwest for a few hours. The main upper air pattern will remain rather benign for the rest of the week as one small disturbance will brush central Kansas Wednesday, but low-level moisture will remain void of the region and no precipitation will occur until we near the weekend. The return southerly flow will increase speeds Tuesday and especially Wednesday as humidity values will continue to remain mostly low through the afternoon creating rapid-fire spread rates through the area. While exact Red Flag warning criteria may not be reached, the fire danger issues will increase for the middle of the week.
By the weekend, the pattern will support a weak upper trough nearing the state bringing another chance for showers or storms sometime into the weekend, possibly Saturday night into Sunday morning as a cold front will pass the area. Temps will fall from the 60s pre-dawn Sunday into the upper 40s by midday to afternoon with north winds. A sneak peek into the following week supports more of an amplified upper airflow from the west to southwest which will bring at least two systems near the region, including thunderstorm chances for some. It's too early to pinpoint the exact days for now.
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