Possible Morning Showers, Afternoon Storm Chances Move In

Our main issue today revolves around storm chances for the afternoon and evening, including the potential for severe storms. A few showers or storms will be possible for the first half of the morning across southeastern OK, but this activity will remain highly scattered and should not be severe. A few morning cells may produce some small hail if storms can develop. Our primary window is this afternoon and evening. This entire system will exit Eastern OK tonight bringing dry and mostly pleasant weather for the weekend. A pattern change is likely next week that will bring cooler weather into the plains states, including Oklahoma with chances for some showers.

South winds have returned to the region this morning as our main upper-level trough travels across the Rockies and pressure begins to fall over the plains. A broad surface low should develop this morning to our west and be positioned near or along the Red River Valley by midday to afternoon with a dryline extending southward along the I-35 corridor of North Texas. A cold front will approach northwestern and northern OK this afternoon and near the metro between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m.

WARN Radar

The airmass south of the front and east of the surface low will become unstable with increasing low-level moisture and highs reaching the upper 70s. Local dew points in the lower 60s are likely south of I-40 and possibly as far north as the metro.

As the cold front nears the metro this afternoon, scattered storms will attempt to develop between the 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. period. The hi-res data support this development very close to Tulsa, near the I-44 corridor. Regardless, I will keep our chances at 90% for this afternoon as the front nears and scattered storms try to fire. The front will continue moving southeast this evening with additional storm development along and ahead of the front, eventually forming at least one, possibly two segments with large hail and damaging wind the primary concern. There will be a tornado threat with some of the activity this afternoon and early evening.

This entire system will be exiting southeastern OK between 8 p.m. and 11 p.m. The main upper air trough, however, will continue moving from central Kansas into the mid-Missouri valley Saturday morning and midday. The wrap-around clouds may impact our area more than I have advertised at this moment, but I’ll keep us with partly cloudy sky and highs in the upper 60s with north winds for this update. South winds return Sunday with highs reaching the upper 70s as our next system drops across the plains.

Early next week a strong upper-level system will develop across the Prairie Provinces of Canada and move into the northern highs plains before nearing the Great lakes region Wednesday and Thursday. Another trough will be positioned well west of the plains. The upper airflow will bring a few disturbances in a zonal flow (west to east) and trigger showers for the middle of the week. Cooler air will be arriving after Monday morning when a strong cold front will quickly move across the state. We’ll reach the 60s Monday and Tuesday but may drop into the upper 50s or lower 60s Wednesday and Thursday with some periodic showers. The stable and cool atmosphere would not support severe weather during this period.

Please remain aware of your weather surroundings later this afternoon and evening as this strong storm system moves across Eastern Oklahoma.

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV

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