Wednesday, June 21st 2023, 11:04 am
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TULSA, Okla. - Another round of storms is moving across the state on Wednesday. These storms likely won't turn severe but strong winds are expected. The bulk of these storms are expected to reach the Tulsa metro around 11:25 a.m.
Here are more details from News On 6 Meteorologist Alan Crone:
Wednesday started warm across northern Oklahoma from Tulsa west with slightly cooler and drier areas noted across far eastern sections of the state. Afternoon highs will again be slightly above normal, with heat index values from 95 to near 99. Higher heat indices will be located to our south and southwest for the afternoon. Another heat advisory is likely for northeastern Oklahoma over locations that continue without power because of the weekend storms. Increasing heat and humidity are likely this weekend, but the upper air flow will provide a slight chance for a storm system or two during the state from now through the weekend. There remains some uncertainty regarding thunderstorm chances over the next few days. Several different scenarios could occur as a result of the positioning of the upper airflow across our immediate area.
The wild card to convective activity is already occurring this morning across central Kansas. A few thunderstorms formed overnight and continue to fester in an area of increasing instability and convective energy. Winds aloft are relatively weak, but there is a remote chance of a small complex of storms forming and dropping southeast with time through the day. Some high-resolution data bring a decaying complex nearing the Oklahoma and Kansas State line area later this afternoon. At the same time, slightly drier air to our east may attempt to sneak into far northeastern Oklahoma from the Missouri Valley later in the day. This may help to weaken any storm complex that attempts to move into northern Oklahoma. Regardless, there will be at least a low-end chance for this scenario to occur. A residual outflow boundary may also float across the area this afternoon and early evening. We'll keep a low probability for thunderstorm chances for areas generally near and northwest of the Tulsa Metro. Additional thunderstorm chances will occur across the western third of the state on Wednesday. Any storms developing in this region would be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall. This activity will remain well west of our immediate area of concern.
The upper air flow will continue to be favorable for bringing a storm system or two nearing northern Oklahoma over the next few days, but the probability will remain rather low due to the presence of a mid-level ridge centered to our south. Basically, from Wednesday through the weekend, there will be at least a low-end chance for a storm system nearby. Some higher probabilities may eventually need to be added as data becomes more consistent. While the dominant feature this weekend will continue to be increasing heights due to the presence of the mid-level ridge, most data suggests a surface boundary could slip into northern Oklahoma Sunday afternoon and evening. After a very toasty and hot weekend, temperatures would drop a few degrees Monday before surging again through the middle of next week as the ridge expands across the state.
Tropical Storm Brett continues to move westward in the Atlantic basin. Tropical storm watches will be posted for areas along the Lesser Antilles over the next few days. As the system continues west, it may encounter increasing shear and some drier air, which may limit intensification processes this weekend. A second wave, also in the Atlantic basin, should strengthen over the next few days and could become tropical storm Cindy.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!