Scattered Showers Remain, Thursday Highs In The Lower 80s

Scattered showers and storms will remain across part, but not all of the area for the next few days.

This system has been highly problematic trying to pin-down exact locations and timing for convective elements. Storms entered part of the area yesterday and produced some moderate to heavy downpours in some locations across southeastern and east central OK, but very little near the metro. This activity exited the area late yesterday afternoon, but additional storm chances should remain for a while as the main upper-level trough to our west begins lifting northeast by this afternoon and an area of convective vorticity lifts northward out of southern OK.

Scattered storms will develop as remnant areas of convective vorticity combined with the upper low will bring scattered showers and storms across part of the area today. A few heavy downpours with some lightning will be expected. By this afternoon, some additional scattered showers or storms will also be possible, but not in all locations. Shear is weak and instability will be low. Severe weather threats will be marginal.

And as the main upper-level trough to our west lifts northward away from the state, stronger forcing will also focus more north, along the intermountain region into the central high plains states. Regardless, we’ll keep some form or fashion of storm chances for part of the Thursday, but probabilities will be trending down Friday into the weekend.

Thursday into Friday, the main upper-level pattern briefly undertakes a transformation with an Omega Block mid-level ridge positioned across Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, southward into part of Mississippi. A new upper-level trough develops across the western U.S. and becomes the dominant upper low, with another low well east, along the east coast. This Omega Block to our east will limit our precip chances this weekend, but we’ll need to keep some low chances nearby as the ridge may be positioned too far east to really keep the lift out of eastern OK. Local dew points will remain quite high and humidity values will support muggy weather this weekend into most of next week as daytime highs reach the lower to mid-80s. This pattern will change again by the early to middle part of next week and allow additional storm chances returning to part of northern OK Tuesday and Wednesday as the ridge moves into the southeastern U.S.

Temperatures will not change too much for the next few days: morning lows in the upper 60s and highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Sunday into early next week, highs will reach the lower and mid-80s.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV

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