Storm Chances Today

The storm system is underway across the southern and central plains this morning with blizzard like conditions from Eastern Colorado to Western Kansas and severe storm potential across portions of Oklahoma.  A tornado watch is posted for portions of west-central OK until 10am this morning.  Additional severe thunderstorm watches may be posted later today for portions of northern OK.   

The main dynamics of the system will be rapidly lifting northeast today while low level moisture attempts to move northward into northeastern OK.  Deep layer shear will remain evident across the western part of the state this morning and will be translating northward with time.  The surface instability will be limited by clouds but the dynamics of the system may be able to create some severe storms across eastern Ok later today or early evening.  Point soundings for Tulsa this afternoon indicate small areas of surface based CAPE.  This morning elevated energy combined with a strong low level jet may produce a few hail storms just northwest of Tulsa. The low level jet may attempt to slide eastward early this morning and bring some of these storms into northeastern OK around 7:30am to 10am.  Meanwhile scattered showers will develop as the moisture streams northward from Texas into southern OK.  These showers will move rapidly northward, but will remain spotty through the early morning hours.  

The model data this morning does not offer a large amount of precipitation for southeastern OK but we'll keep the pop on the high side.   

The actual front will not move across the area until around 2 to 3AM Saturday morning.  A small squall line feature or a broken line feature will be likely late tonight from 7pm to 3am as the front moves eastward.  I anticipate the system to be out of the state by 4am Saturday morning. 

Gusty west and northwest winds will be common Saturday with increasing clouds by midday to late afternoon as moisture wraps around the large upper level storm that will be moving across the Midwest.  A few sprinkles will be possible along the OK-Kansas state line, but I'll not include these in the main graphics package. 

Sunday a surge of colder air will arrive and this will keep the highs in the upper 40s with mostly cloudy skies.