Active Weather Pattern Ahead

The colder air is now across the state and will bring a taste of winter time temperatures back to the region today with highs in the lower 40s.  An argument can be made for highs in the upper 30s for some locations across extreme northern OK where clouds may not clear for most of the day.  Some locations southwest of Tulsa may move into the upper 40s with some afternoon sun.   North winds in the 10 to 15 mph range will create a wind chill this morning in the upper 20s and lower 30s.  Grab that big coat and keep it handy.

The air mass will modify tomorrow as a return to south winds will allow surface temps to move into the lower 50s, but another cold front will slide across the area pre-dawn Friday morning bringing another round of colder air to the state.  An upper level system will bring a few showers Friday morning to locations south of I-40, but I think most, if not all, of this activity will stay south of the Tulsa metro.  This could be a close call for some light wintry mix due to the colder air expected early Friday morning, but the majority of the area south of I-40 would be too warm for a mix.  The northern sections of the state could support some winter mix but most of the precip is expected to be across the southern sections of the state.

The Friday front will be followed by a ridge of high pressure building across the middle part of the nation.  This will bring some cold air back to the state for the weekend.  The MOS numbers ( computer numbers) indicate highs will stay in the upper 30s both Saturday and Sunday.  Regardless, it appears this weekend will be cold as a taste of a hybrid of arctic and Canadian air will be experienced.

Sunday into Monday could get a little interesting.

Yesterday's EURO data had been suggesting a shot of cold air Sunday with a storm system bringing a chance of sleet and snow to part of the state, including portions of Eastern OK.  The GFS data was also suggesting a storm system, but it was slightly slower and warmer.  The GFS from yesterday would bring rain back to the state Monday with south winds and temperatures in the upper 50s. 

Today's data is a little different, but basically supports rain for Tulsa by Monday and warmer air Tuesday with another system brushing the state.  The EURO continues to suggest some wintry precip potential for Sunday evening into Monday morning, but this may be a stretch as the model is also forecasting south winds Monday but with a temperature profile that would support snow.  This is a little unusual.

We'll keep you posted on this Sunday-Monday system.