Warm & Windy, Increasing Chances of Storms.
After a warm, windy Memorial Day gusty southerly winds will continue to be an issue for the next few days. The map on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, shows the maximum wind gusts recorded so far today. For tonight, the winds will diminish somewhat, but will still be on the order of 10-20 mph. Look for the winds during the day Tuesday and Wednesday to be back to near the levels that occurred today.
Those southerly winds will also keep temperatures from dropping much overnight as we should only reach the lower 70s to start the day on Tuesday which is much above the normal of 62. The second map on the right shows the high/low temperatures across the state so far today and those warm nights are very obvious. Notice also the triple digits that occurred in the OK Panhandle this afternoon while the E side of the state was generally in the 80s. We expect to have enough cloud cover to remain generally in the low-mid 80s each of the next several days as well.
However, later in the week the pattern aloft will become much more unsettled with increasing chances of showers/storms, some potentially severe. This could turn out to be a rather long-lived unsettled period with showers/storms primarily to our west for Tue/Wed but trying to make a run at this side of the state. They will likely fall apart before getting this far Tuesday night, but stand a decent chance of crossing I-35 Wednesday night. The focus will gradually shift on eastward as the week progresses with additional rounds of showers/storms developing and making a run at us for the Thu night time frame and again Friday night into the day Saturday.
The primary cause is a strong disturbance aloft that will be dropping into the Rockies and then gradually shifting out into the Northern Plains during the latter part of the week. Since this system will be moving rather slowly and with energy rotating around it and moving across the state, we will be having repeated chances of showers/storms until a cool front finally pushes on through the state. Right now, that looks to be during the day Saturday and if so, that would provide for some much more decent weather for the latter part of the weekend and into early that following week. However, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and impacts of that cool front. The Euro model pushes the front on through leaving us with some pretty nice weather for Sun/Mon. However, the latest run of the GFS stalls the boundary keeping us with additional chances of showers/storms into early next week. Those differences will probably require another day or two of data to get sorted out.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.