We’re in the 70s this morning sandwiched between two minor systems that may produce a few showers across either far northwestern sections of the area or extreme eastern areas.  The hi-res data suggest a small shower or two could be possible along the I-35 region near Ponca City to Wichita this morning and maybe early afternoon.  Other showers will be possible across central Arkansas again today that may brush the OK-Arkansas state line region.  Both chances are extremely low.  Most of our weather will remain like yesterday with highs in the lower 90 along with south winds from 15 to 25 mph by midday to afternoon.  There will be a few more clouds at times, but sunshine also will remain. 

We’re tracking two fronts over the next 10 days, but summerlike weather will remain for the next few days.

 The first front will move across the state sometime Thursday afternoon and night into Friday morning before stalling across southern OK midday Friday.  This boundary will either become diffuse or possibly retreat northward late Friday night into Saturday morning across northeastern OK.  The latter option would require us to keep a mention for a few storms for late Friday night into early Saturday.  Midlevel ridging returns this weekend into early next week with another slow run-up in humidity and temperature before a second front should enter the region for late next week.  

The upper air pattern is now mostly southwest across the plains and will soon bring a stout upper level system across the northern and central plains Thursday as it becomes more zonal into late week.  Most of the dynamic energy will remain slightly north of the state, but this system will help to drive a surface front southward bringing rain and storm chances, scattered in nature, across part of the area.  A few strong to severe storms would be possible based on the pattern with the main threats of a few damaging wind gusts along with a few hail reports.  As the main upper level support rapidly exits the central plains, the surface front will stall and could possibly retreat northward late Friday night into Saturday morning.  The boundary becoming diffuse would be better for our Friday night football games.  If the front remains intact, this boundary would act to focus a few scattered storms, probably for the latter portion of any games.  At this point in the forecast cycle, this will remain a low possibility.  The higher chances will remain for late Thursday afternoon and evening into pre-dawn Friday morning.

The temperatures behind the boundary Friday will be lower with highs in the lower to mid-80s.  This is not due to any big airmass change, but rather the influence of cloud cover and differential heating.  The numbers this weekend should start with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.  Heat index values Saturday will be around 94 for the big SOU-Tulsa game at 2:30pm in Tulsa.

I always preach that September is a big transition month for the state.  The main northern jet (polar jet) begins migrating slowly southward and starts the process of bringing more active weather back into the southern plains by late September and early October.  The data continues to suggest this pattern change will be slowly occurring late next week into the following weekend.  We shall see.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone