Strong Storm System To Bring Chance Of Severe Weather To Oklahoma

Wednesday, May 15th 2019, 11:24 am

A strong storm system will bring active weather back to the plains Friday and Saturday with increasing thunderstorm chances Saturday across eastern Oklahoma, including the potential for severe storms and heavy rainfall.  Additional thunderstorm chances will remain early next week with some severe threats along with pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall for some locations.  

Our weather today will remain cool this morning but warm and slightly breezy this afternoon highs in the upper 80s along with mostly sunny conditions.  A mid-level ridge of high pressure will be centered across most of the state, but far northeastern OK will remain near the northwest flow aloft.  This will necessitate a small mention for a few storms across extreme NE OK into NW Arkansas later this afternoon or evening, yet the chances will remain very low, even in these areas. 

Our pattern of warm and muggy weather will remain through the end of the week with morning lows in the 60s and highs in the upper 80s.

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A strong upper level system will be nearing the plains Friday with a surface low pressure area developing across southeastern Colorado and a dry line establishing from the center southward across part of the panhandle and high plains of Texas.  Locations to the east of the dry line will see a few scattered storms by Friday afternoon or evening with supercell structures producing very large hail and a tornado or two. 

A capping inversion is likely to keep the number of storms relatively low but any storms that do form Friday would be severe.

Late Friday night into Saturday, stronger forcing from the main upper level system is projected to arrive across the state with increasing thunderstorm chances across central and eastern Oklahoma including a few through the morning hours.  But higher chances for additional storms, including strong to severe threats will arrive by Saturday afternoon and evening as the dry line moves eastward and additional upper level forcing arrives. 

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All modes of severe weather will be possible, including the threat of some moderate to heavy rainfall.  Most data support storms exiting the area late Saturday night into pre-dawn Sunday as the first upper trough quickly ejects into the Midwest.   The pattern will support another western U.S. trough nearing with additional storms likely early next week, possibly both Monday and Tuesday, including the additional threats of severe weather and heavy rainfall.

Specific timing for Saturday storms will be refined as we grow closer to the period.   

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a great day!


Alan Crone


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