Looks like we’re on track for the next few days with our previous line of thinking. The progressive northwest flow will bring a few quick moving systems across the region before the flow becomes more zonal by the middle to end of next week. The net impact will continue to be active weather for the next few days, but the timing appears favorable for some decent daytime weather for outdoor activities for the next few days.
The first wave is moving across the area right now as I’m posting before 3 a.m. A few showers and sprinkles will be likely to the northeast of the metro before this lift moves away from the region. Another surface boundary will quickly move across the area this morning with northwest winds and mostly to partly sunny conditions this afternoon allowing daytime temps in the lower 60s, about 4 to 6 degrees below the seasonal average. Friday night football games look chilly with temps starting around 55 and ending near 50.
Saturday most of the eastern third of the state will remain in the warm-sector of a developing system with gusty south winds and highs moving into the upper 60s near 70. There will be some increasing clouds ahead of the system, but the afternoon should be in decent shape for most of the area. There could be a few small showers Saturday midday across far northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas as low-level moisture rapidly returns.
By early evening another system will quickly approach with a line of showers and some thunder attempting to develop. The current timing would bring this into the metro around 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. and then moving across southeastern Oklahoma into the midnight or pre-dawn Sunday hours. If the current timing holds, most of the Sunday period (other than early morning across far eastern Oklahoma) will be dry with highs in the upper 50s or lower 60s.
The next wave will quickly drop southward out of the Rockies Sunday night helping to develop a surface low across southeastern Colorado or northwestern Oklahoma. The stronger winds aloft with this developing upper level jet streak may provide some favorable dynamics for strong to near severe storms Monday afternoon or evening as the surface low moves eastward across the state with attendant surface front. The EURO and GFS continue to differ on the timing with some important features such as the exact track of the surface low, but the current positioning of the highest chances for storms Monday continue to be our favored scenario. If this holds, Tuesday looks dry with Election Day highs in the mid to upper 50s north and few lower 60s south.
The late week zonal flow will bring several systems across the central plains until reverting back to northwest for by the weekend, but our main impact will be frontal intrusions across northern and central Oklahoma with temps below the seasonal average late next week. One could argue for some cold weather for the latter half of next week into next weekend. Stay tuned.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.